What is the infamous "Housing Market?"
We keep hearing people talk about the "housing market" as if it's all the same from Rhode Island to Montana. The term "housing market" is thrown around as if it's one entity, no matter where "it" is. I don't think the "housing market" and all of its characteristics are the same from Nantucket to Newport (Nantucket??)
The "market" has all the same differences, complexities and intricacies that humans do. Why? Well, because the housing market consists of an inanimate object that we, as people, control. So, to talk about it from state to state and city to city as if it were all the same, would be like talking about "people" as if we were all the same. How absurd!
Each city and state have their own economies with individual distinctions. Why do I bring this up? We live in a growing city that has had its setbacks in the "market", however, it's just not that bad. It's like if we were to compare the real estate statistics of Queen Creek and North Scottsdale. It would make no sense. Meaningless facts are being spewed all over us like a bad salesman on a car lot would do.
For Example
Arizona was just named BEST GOLF DESTINATION by the International Association of Golf Tour Operators for the North American category. That's unique to our state! Maricopa County is also one of the fastest growing counties in the nation. At one point, we had surpassed Nevada, so THAT'S unique! I got a phone call from a Canadian investment company asking me to help them find properties to buy. They have a $10M budget and they are buying in 4 markets and Scottsdale-Phoenix is one of the four. I have also heard from several Canadian buyers who want to buy vacation homes in our sunny city because their dollar is so strong, our weather is fantastic and our market has a lot to choose from! I bet they're not buying in New Jersey (NOT that there's anything wrong with New Jersey)!
Here's a local stat for you to consider: if house prices are down by 8% in the past 12 months according to the Case-Shiller index, but up by a net 80.2% between 2002 and 2007, it left homeowners with most of their paper gains intact.
The most forgotten aspect of this beast called the "housing market" is that these houses are our homes. They are shelter for our families, a refuge to come HOME to at the end of a day. A shelter that comes with tax benefits and leveraged appreciation. The home where memories are made with family and friends. Let us not forget that owning a home in this country is quite a privilege.
Remember Norman Rockwell. Hundreds of his paintings centered around the American dream of family and the essence of home ownership. The home wasn't just an asset to be flipped and bartered. Don't forget the American dream.
So, the market is that bad, eh! Well, here's some great news that ensures we keep them visiting here...and moving here!
Arizona has been honored as the best golf destination in all of North America! The International Association of Golf Tour Operators honored Arizona as the Golf Destination of the Year in the North America category.
"The global trade organization for the golf tourism industry comprises more than 1,000 companies in 73 countries, including more than 320 golf tour operators in 45 countries. Arizona averages more than 330 sunny days each year, and the state has more than 300 golf courses, according to the group."
Let's face it . . .we are the place to be! We have excellent weather at least 7 mths out of the year (shhhhh), no natural disasters to worry about, no snow to shovel....so it's really not that bad. We have so many economic indicators that are in our favor for the local housing market to be "aweswome" by 2009. Now, if only we all jumped on that mental bandwagon instead of staying in the doomsday mindset.
Clearly, folks, things could be a heck of a lot worse for us. Turn to one of the good cities in the US of A, New Orleans, and count your blessings and quit complaining. The more you stay in analysis paralysis waiting for some imaginary floor to drop -the more stagnant our market will stay. It's like trying to time the stock market just right - it's totally unrealistic.
For those of you who keep waiting, you just might miss the perfect home for your family. This is a great time to invest in a home!
November 20, 2007
By Bernice Ross
Inman News
I am sick and tired of the negative media constantly ranting about how horrible everything is in our business. It's time for our industry to fight back against these psychic vampires who seek to suck every bit of hope and optimism out of us just to build their circulation.
Newspaper headlines and buzzwords abound, such as: "Two million people will lose their homes in foreclosure in the next two years!" "Subprime Fiasco!" and "Mortgage Meltdown."
These are the headlines we hear every day, yet where is the positive news about the real estate market? The answer is, buried in statistics on page 15 of section 3 of your newspaper, provided you can find them at all.
Here's a typical example from USA Today, Oct. 26, 2007, page 1B:
New Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise
New homes sales posted an unexpected increase in September. But analysts were highly skeptical given the credit crunch and predicted further sales declines. The Commerce Department said sales of new homes rose 4.8 percent last month…"
By the way, here's what they didn't report. Sales in the West were up 36.6 percent. The media totally discounted these statistics. What about a different headline: "Great News! Real Estate Sales Surge Despite Biggest Credit Crunch in Decades"?
Here's another example. In Sept. 6, 2007, article entitled, "New Mortgage Foreclosures Set Record," Martin Crutsinger provided the following summary of a speech given by Doug Duncan, the chief economist for the National Mortgage Bankers Association. Here's how it was reported:
"The number of homeowners receiving foreclosure notices hit a record high in the spring, driven up by problems with subprime mortgages. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday that mortgage-holders starting the foreclosure process in the April-June quarter reached 0.65 percent, marking the third consecutive quarter that this figure has set an all-time high.
"The delinquency rate has risen to 5.12 percent … The worsening performance was driven by two factors -- heavy losses in the Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, and the collapse of previously booming housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona … Analysts said the problems in the formerly red-hot housing markets of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona reflected in part speculators walking away from mortgages they can no longer afford."
This article ends with the negative media's favorite theme for scaring their readers and/or listeners: "Two million people will face foreclosure in the next two years."
Here are the numbers that the negative media did NOT report from Duncan's speech:
1. Thirty-five percent of the homes in the U.S. do NOT have a mortgage.
2. Some 94.88 percent of the loans ARE performing.
3. The foreclosure problem in this country is really a story about seven states.
4. The biggest foreclosure problems are in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. These are manufacturing states that had horrible job losses. Since 2001, Michigan has lost 300,000 jobs. These states would probably have had problems no matter what the market was doing.
5. The other four states -- California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona -- experienced significant overbuilding. Twenty-five percent of the foreclosures in these states are on properties that are held by investors who were speculating.
6. Only 25 percent of all mortgages are subprime, and of these, 75 percent are performing.
7. In the other 43 states, foreclosures have fallen in 2007 from 2006 (data from Michael Clawson, vice president, Central Texas Mortgage).
Furthermore, buyers who are waiting to purchase when the so-called bubble pops in California's major metropolitan areas are going to be sitting on the sidelines, according to the latest data from a state Realtor group.
According to Leslie Appleton Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, the areas being hardest hit in California are the outlying areas where there has been overbuilding. The resale market in California's major markets continues to be strong. In fact, the closer you are to a metropolitan area, the better the sales are. In the million-dollar-plus price range, there has been essentially no change from 2006 to 2007.
There's no question about the fact that there is bad news in some markets. What irks me is that there is also a lot of good news that is either being buried or is not being reported at all.
To get a PDF copy of The Forecast, Email Me. To get a report of sales activity and comparisons in a specific neighborhood, contact me and I'll prepare one for you.

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